Working out your Poker odds can be easy or complicated.
I always use the easy method.
When playing poker, some people like to work out
their odds of getting the cards they need and others
just follow their instinct and hope for the best.
Sometimes luck will prevail and the poker gods will
give you the cards you want; other times luck will
prevail and the river card will go against you. It
is this reason I think that poker is classed as gambling
and not a game of skill. I say, if it is a game of
luck, then why do the same people win on a regular
basis.
Working out your odds of hitting the card need to
make that flush or straight can help you decide if
it is worth calling of folding the hand. You do also
need to consider that if you get your hand, will it
still beat the other player, but that is something
you learn as you go.
The Calculation
There are a number of ways to calculate, but I always
use the following way.
First of all, you only every take in to account the
cards you can see, so assume that none of the other
players have the card you want or need. Say you are
holding AK Hearts; you have the same chance of making
a hand or pair as someone holing 57. If the flop comes
down 3h,8h,9c. You will need one more card to make
your flush. There are 13 cards of each suit in the
deck, less the 4 you can see, will leave you with
9 outs. You then multiply your number of out by 4,
to get the rough estimate of your % chance of hitting
the card. This will give you the % chance of 27%.
Now if the next card comes down and it is a club,
then you still have another card to give you your
flush. But as there is only one more card due out
then you will reduce your % chance by half; or multiply
your outs by 2; thus giving you the chance of hitting
your card down to 18%.
Now you also need to consider the chance of hitting
a pair, which will increase your chance % chance of
getting a hand. You have AK, so you also have the
chance of hitting a pair with these cards. There are
3 A’s left and 3 K’s left. So you have
9 + 3 + 3 = 15 outs after the flop. Multiply by 4
will give you 60% chance of hitting a hand after the
flop and 30% after the turn.
Tips and Round Up
When working out your outs is to make sure you never
count the same card twice as an out.
You also need to consider if it is worth making a
call or a raise if you hit a pair. This is where the
skill element comes in. You need to read your player
and try to figure out if they are trying to bluff
you off the pot, or if they do really have a hand.
This is where making a note of your opponents playing
style will come in handy. If they are a tight player,
then they are more than likely to have a good hand.
If they seem to call everything down to the river
or rise on a regular basis then they could be a lose
player and be trying to bluff you off the pot.
So what of the odd of hitting hands:
Hand Odds
Royal Flush 650,000 / 1
Straight Flush 72,200 / 1
Four of a Kind 4,200 / 1
Full House 700 / 1
Flush 510 / 1
Straight 250 / 1
3 of a kind 48 / 1
2 pair 21 / 1
Pair 2.4 / 1
High Card Evens
Probability of being dealt a pocket pair –
5.9% or 16/1
Probability of making 3 of a kind on the flop –
11.8% or 7.5/1
Probability of being dealt pocket aces – 0.45%
or 220/1
Probability of making a pair with your hole cards
– 32.4% or 2.1/1
Probability of making 2 pair on the flop – 2%
or 49/1
Probability of filling an open ended straight –
31.5% or 2.2/1
Probability of filling a straight on the turn or river
– 16.5% or 5/1
Probability of being dealt suited hole cards –
23.5% or 3.25/1
Probability of the suited cards being 10 or better
– 3% or 32/1
Probability of flopping a flush – 0.8% or 124/1
Probability of flopping a flush draw – 10.9%
or 8/1
Probability of hitting the flush after the flop –
35% or 2/1
Chances of at least 1 person holding an ace –
14.9% or 5.7/1
Chances of no one else having one when you hold one(table
of 6) – 50.4% or 5.7/1
Chances of no one else having one when you hold one(table
of 10) – 25.3% or 3/1
Why not try calculating your own odds or search for
an odds calculator.
